The Price of Solar: 15+ Years of Cost Data
Straight from the data: the U.S. residential solar benchmark fell from $9.23 per watt in 2010 to $3.25 per watt in 2024 — a 65% drop — while solar module prices fell about 90% over the same period (NREL). Go back to 2000 and installed prices were near $12.30/W (LBNL). The panel is now the cheapest part of a system, and here is the twist most people miss in 2026.
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- NREL’s residential benchmark fell $9.23/W (2010) → $3.25/W (2024), a 65% drop.
- Modules fell ~90% — hardware led the decline; installation and “soft costs” now dominate the price.
- Around 2000, installed residential solar was near $12.30/W (LBNL) — today is roughly a quarter of that.
- The federal tax credit ended for owner-bought systems after Dec 31, 2025 — yet today’s unsubsidized price still beats 2010’s price after the old 30% credit.
The numbers: a residential system, by year
Two of the most-cited primary sources track installed prices over time: the U.S. Department of Energy’s national lab NREL (its residential cost benchmark) and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab’s Tracking the Sun (median reported prices from millions of real systems). They measure slightly different things, so we label each row.
| Year | Installed $/W (DC) | A 7 kW system | Source / measure |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~2000 | ~$12.30 | ~$86,000 | LBNL, median reported |
| 2010 | $9.23 | ~$64,600 | NREL benchmark |
| 2020 | ~$3.00 | ~$21,000 | market estimate |
| 2024 | $3.25 | ~$22,750 | NREL benchmark |
| 2026 | ~$2.60–$3.50 | ~$18k–$25k | CA market, no ITC |
Sources: NREL — Documenting 15 Years of Reductions in U.S. Solar · LBNL — Tracking the Sun. LBNL median, NREL benchmark and market cash price are different measures; rows are labeled and rounded.
The solar price time machine
Enter a system size and pick a year. The tool multiplies the system size by an illustrative installed-price reference point for the selected year, each labeled as an LBNL median, NREL benchmark or market estimate — so you can see, in dollars, how far solar has fallen. It also shows the one comparison that matters in 2026: today’s unsubsidized price versus 2010’s price after the old tax credit.
What would this system have cost?
Illustrative installed-price reference points by year (DC).
Price-per-watt sources: 2000 LBNL Tracking the Sun (~$12.30/W); 2010 & 2024 NREL residential benchmark ($9.23 → $3.25/W); 2020 and 2026 are market estimates (~$3/W). LBNL median, NREL benchmark and market cash price are different measures — figures are rounded planning values, not quotes. The 2026 ~$2.60–$3.50/W is the planning range from our 2026 California cost analysis (cash, solar-only; before battery, roofing or panel-upgrade costs).
Why the fall slowed — and what it means
The steep early drop was hardware: modules fell roughly 90% as manufacturing scaled. But after about 2012 the decline flattened, because the remaining cost is mostly not the panel. On today’s residential systems, installation labor and soft costs — permitting, inspection, interconnection, sales and overhead — make up the largest share of the price (NREL). That is a separate story we tell in how to read a solar quote: since the panel is cheap, the price differences between installers are mostly soft costs, not hardware.
No tax credit today still beats a tax credit in 2010
The federal Residential Clean Energy Credit ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a 2026 cash buyer pays a gross, unsubsidized price. Run the math on the 2010 benchmark: $9.23/W minus the old 30% credit still nets about $6.46/W. A 2026 system at roughly $3/W with no credit at all is less than half that. Hardware deflation did far more for affordability than the credit ever did. See what the end of the federal tax credit means.
What this means for an LA homeowner
Three practical takeaways from the data:
Don’t wait for hardware to get cheaper
The panel is already the cheap part; further big drops would have to come from soft costs, which move slowly. Timing the market on equipment price no longer pays.
Compare installers, not panels
Because soft costs dominate, two quotes for the same panels can differ by thousands. That gap is process and overhead — see our quote comparison checklist.
The credit’s end is not a dealbreaker
Today’s unsubsidized price is historically low. Whether solar pencils out now depends far more on your electricity rate than on the lost credit.
Frequently asked
How much have solar prices dropped?
By NREL’s residential benchmark, installed cost fell from $9.23 per watt in 2010 to $3.25 per watt in 2024 — about 65%. Solar module prices alone fell roughly 90% over that period. Going back to ~2000, LBNL put installed residential prices near $12.30/W, so today is roughly a quarter of that. These are different measures (benchmark vs median vs market), so compare like with like.
Why did solar stop getting cheaper so fast?
The early plunge was hardware — modules scaled and prices collapsed. What is left is mostly not the panel: installation labor and soft costs (permitting, inspection, interconnection, sales, overhead) are now the largest share of a residential system’s price (NREL). Those move slowly, so the curve flattened after roughly 2012.
Now that the federal tax credit ended, is solar more expensive?
The gross price is what you pay, since the Residential Clean Energy Credit ended for owner-bought systems placed in service after Dec 31, 2025. But today’s unsubsidized ~$3/W is still below the 2010 benchmark of $9.23/W even after that year’s 30% credit (~$6.46/W net). Hardware deflation outweighed the credit. Whether solar is worth it now hinges on your electricity rate.
Is the panel really the cheapest part?
Yes. After a ~90% drop, the module is a small slice of a residential system’s installed price; NREL finds installation labor and soft costs make up the largest share. That is why the biggest price differences between quotes are usually process and overhead, not the brand of panel.
Does a lower price mean lower quality equipment?
Not necessarily — the whole market is cheaper than a decade ago. But an unusually low quote can signal bargain gear or a thin scope, so always confirm the panel and inverter make and model and the full roof and electrical scope. Our quote red flags guide walks through it.
Related reading
See where prices sit today
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Get a free estimatePrepared by Cali Energy, July 2026. This article is for general educational purposes only and is not legal, tax, financial, engineering, or utility advice. Rates, incentives, codes, permit requirements, equipment specifications, prices, and program terms may change; figures and timelines are estimates, not guarantees. Confirm current requirements with the applicable utility, AHJ, program administrator, manufacturer, or a licensed professional. See our Content Disclaimer. Cali Energy · 19201 Parthenia St Unit E, Northridge, CA 91324 · CSLB #1032379 (B, C-10, C-39)