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Solar panel cost history (1998–2026)
Updated October 6, 2026 · based on Berkeley Lab, NREL benchmark and CPUC DG Stats prices · by Cali Energy
How much have solar prices fallen? A 6 kW system that cost about $74,000 in 1998 and $55,000 in 2010 is roughly $19,400 at California’s median 2026 price — even with the federal tax credit now gone. The figures come from Berkeley Lab, NREL and CPUC data in different dollar years, so read them as a trend.
✓ A long-run price trend from public data — sources and dollar years labeled. See every figure it uses ↓
Illustrative installed-price reference points by year (DC).
Price-per-watt sources: 1998 Berkeley Lab Tracking the Sun IX (about $12.4/W, 2015 dollars); 2010, 2020 and 2024 NREL residential benchmark ($9.23, $3.33, $3.25/W, 2024 dollars); 2026 the median price of solar-only home systems approved in California in January–August 2026 (CPUC DG Stats, $3.23/W). A median, a modeled benchmark and a quote are different measures — these are reference points, not quotes.
The rates and figures this calculator usestap to verify
The tool multiplies your system size by a $/W figure for the year you pick. Here are the per-watt figures and their sources — they blend more than one dataset and dollar year, so read them as directional.
| 1998 | ~$12.40/W (Berkeley Lab Tracking the Sun, median, 2015 dollars) |
| 2010 | $9.23/W (NREL benchmark, 2024 dollars) |
| 2020 | $3.33/W (NREL benchmark, 2024 dollars) |
| 2024 | $3.25/W (NREL benchmark, 2024 dollars) |
| 2026 | $3.23/W (California median, solar-only, January–August; CPUC DG Stats) |
| Cost in a year | size (W) × that year’s $/W |
| 2010, after the old 30% credit | × 0.70 (shown as a note) |
These figures blend sources with different methods and dollar years: Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun (1998, a median in 2015 dollars), NREL’s modeled residential benchmark (2010–2024, in 2024 dollars) and the median price California homes paid for solar-only systems in 2026 (CPUC DG Stats). Treat the trajectory as directional, not a precise index. The 2026 figure is a gross California price with no federal credit (it ended after December 31, 2025). Even so, today’s unsubsidized price sits far below every earlier year here.
Example results you can reproduce
Each row prices a 6 kW system at that year’s figure — pick the same size and year above to reproduce it.
| Year | Price/watt | 6 kW system |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | $12.40 | $74,400 |
| 2010 | $9.23 | $55,380 |
| 2020 | $3.33 | $19,980 |
| 2026 | $3.23 | $19,380 |
How this calculator works
It multiplies your system size by an average installed price per watt for the year you select, drawn from public data (Berkeley Lab Tracking the Sun, NREL benchmarks, CPUC DG Stats). For 2010 it also shows what the system netted after the old 30% federal credit, to make the point that even today’s unsubsidized price beats a 2010 system with its credit. The figures are not all in the same year’s dollars (see the sources above), so read the comparison as a trend.
How to read your result
Read the trend, not the decimal. The drop from ~$12/W to ~$3/W over nearly 30 years is the real story; the exact cents in any single year depend on which dataset and system mix you use. The 1998 and NREL figures are already stated in later-year dollars, so the decline is not an artifact of inflation.
What moves the result the most
The year you pick — that’s the whole point. Under the hood, the decline is driven by falling module and hardware costs (soft costs like permitting and sales fell less), which is why prices flattened near ~$3/W in the 2020s rather than continuing straight down. The end of the federal credit in 2026 nudged the effective price up for buyers, but not back toward earlier-decade levels.
Common questions
Are these numbers inflation-adjusted?
Partly. NREL’s benchmarks are in 2024 dollars and the Berkeley Lab figure in 2015 dollars; the 2026 California median is in current dollars.
Why did solar get so much cheaper?
Mostly falling module and hardware costs as manufacturing scaled, plus more efficient installation. Soft costs (permitting, sales, overhead) fell less, which is why prices leveled off near ~$3/W.
Does the 2026 price include the tax credit?
No — the federal credit ended after 2025, so 2026 is a gross, unsubsidized price.
Is 2026 really cheaper than 2010 even without a credit?
Yes. A 2010 system after its 30% credit still netted around $6.46/W — more than double today’s ~$3/W gross price. Hardware deflation outran the loss of the credit.
Where do the figures come from?
Public data — Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun, NREL cost benchmarks and, for 2026, the California median from CPUC DG Stats. Methods differ slightly by year, so they’re directional.
What would my system cost today?
Use our solar cost calculator for a current 2026 California estimate from your usage or a system size.
Sources
- NREL — Documenting 15 Years of Reductions in U.S. Solar (benchmarks 2010–2024, Tables A-5 and A-6)
- DOE / NREL — Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmarks (Q1 2025)
- Berkeley Lab — Tracking the Sun IX (2016 edition): installed prices 1998–2015
- Berkeley Lab — Tracking the Sun / U.S. Distributed Solar and Storage, 2025 data update
- CPUC — California DG Stats, Interconnected Project Sites (data through August 31, 2026; Cali Energy medians)
- IRS — Residential Clean Energy Credit
Estimates only, not a quote. Assumptions, rates, incentives and program rules can change — confirm current details with your utility, the program administrator or a licensed professional.
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