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Solar panel cost history (2000–2026)
Updated August 7, 2026 · based on LBNL Tracking the Sun and NREL benchmark prices (nominal) · by Cali Energy
How much have solar prices fallen? A 6 kW system that cost about $74,000 in 2000 and $55,000 in 2010 is roughly $18,000 in 2026 — even with the federal tax credit now gone. These are nominal dollar-per-watt benchmarks (LBNL, NREL), not inflation-adjusted.
✓ A long-run price trend from public benchmarks — shown in nominal dollars, sources labeled. See every figure it uses ↓
Illustrative installed-price reference points by year (DC).
Price-per-watt sources: 2000 LBNL Tracking the Sun (~$12.30/W); 2010 & 2024 NREL residential benchmark ($9.23 → $3.25/W); 2020 and 2026 are market estimates (~$3/W). LBNL median, NREL benchmark and market cash price are different measures — figures are rounded planning values, not quotes. The 2026 ~$2.60–$3.50/W is the planning range from our 2026 California cost analysis (cash, solar-only; before battery, roofing or panel-upgrade costs).
The rates and figures this calculator usestap to verify
The tool multiplies your system size by a nominal $/W benchmark for the year you pick. Here are the per-watt figures and their sources — these are nominal (not inflation-adjusted) and blend more than one dataset, so read them as directional.
| 2000 | ~$12.30/W (LBNL Tracking the Sun) |
| 2010 | ~$9.23/W (NREL benchmark) |
| 2020 | ~$3.00/W (market estimate) |
| 2024 | ~$3.25/W (NREL benchmark) |
| 2026 | ~$3.00/W (California market) |
| Cost in a year | size (W) × that year’s $/W |
| 2010, after the old 30% credit | × 0.70 (shown as a note) |
These are nominal $/W benchmarks — the dollars of each year, not adjusted for inflation. They blend sources (LBNL Tracking the Sun, NREL cost benchmarks and market estimates) with slightly different methods and system-size mixes, so treat the trajectory as directional, not a precise index. The 2026 figure is a gross California price with no federal credit (it ended after December 31, 2025). Even so, today’s unsubsidized price sits far below every earlier year here.
Example results you can reproduce
Each row prices a 6 kW system at that year’s nominal benchmark — pick the same size and year above to reproduce it.
| Year | Price/watt | 6 kW system (nominal) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $12.30 | $73,800 |
| 2010 | $9.23 | $55,380 |
| 2020 | $3.00 | $18,000 |
| 2026 | $3.00 | $18,000 |
How this calculator works
It multiplies your system size by an average installed price per watt for the year you select, drawn from public benchmarks (LBNL Tracking the Sun, NREL). For 2010 it also shows what the system netted after the old 30% federal credit, to make the point that even today’s unsubsidized price beats a 2010 system with its credit. All figures are nominal — each year’s own dollars — so the comparison shows hardware deflation, not real (inflation-adjusted) change.
How to read your result
Read the trend, not the decimal. The drop from ~$12/W to ~$3/W over 25 years is the real story; the exact cents in any single year depend on which dataset and system mix you use. Because the numbers aren’t inflation-adjusted, the real decline is even larger than the nominal figures suggest — $12 in 2000 is worth far more than $12 today.
What moves the result the most
The year you pick — that’s the whole point. Under the hood, the decline is driven by falling module and hardware costs (soft costs like permitting and sales fell less), which is why prices flattened near ~$3/W in the 2020s rather than continuing straight down. The end of the federal credit in 2026 nudged the effective price up for buyers, but not back toward earlier-decade levels.
Common questions
Are these numbers inflation-adjusted?
No — they’re nominal, in each year’s own dollars. The real (inflation-adjusted) decline is even steeper, since older dollars were worth more.
Why did solar get so much cheaper?
Mostly falling module and hardware costs as manufacturing scaled, plus more efficient installation. Soft costs (permitting, sales, overhead) fell less, which is why prices leveled off near ~$3/W.
Does the 2026 price include the tax credit?
No — the federal credit ended after 2025, so 2026 is a gross, unsubsidized price.
Is 2026 really cheaper than 2010 even without a credit?
Yes. A 2010 system after its 30% credit still netted around $6.46/W — more than double today’s ~$3/W gross price. Hardware deflation outran the loss of the credit.
Where do the figures come from?
Public benchmarks — LBNL’s Tracking the Sun and NREL cost studies, with market estimates for gap years. Methods differ slightly by year, so they’re directional.
What would my system cost today?
Use our solar cost calculator for a current 2026 California estimate from your usage or a system size.
Sources
- NREL — Documenting 15 Years of Reductions in U.S. Solar (cost benchmark)
- NREL — Fall 2024 Solar Industry Update
- LBNL — Tracking the Sun (installed price of distributed PV)
- DOE — Solar PV System Cost Benchmarks
- IRS — Residential Clean Energy Credit
Estimates only, not a quote. Assumptions, rates, incentives and program rules can change — confirm current details with your utility, the program administrator or a licensed professional.
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