Cali Energy research · Output by system size

How Much Does a 4–12 kW Solar System Produce in Los Angeles?

Name: Estimated solar output by system size, Los Angeles area
Creator: Cali Energy
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

At the rate we measured on 89 Los Angeles-area systems (1,456 kWh per kW a year), a 6 kW solar system produces about 8,740 kWh a year (24 a day), an 8 kW about 11,650 and a 10 kW about 14,560. Measured systems of every size produced about the same per kW, so output scales almost linearly with size.

Updated October 7, 2026 · Data through December 2025 · Cali Energy research team · CSLB #1032379 · verify license

8,740

kWh a year from a 6 kW system (median rate)

11,650

kWh a year from an 8 kW system

14,560

kWh a year from a 10 kW system

1.6 kWh

A day from one 400 W panel, yearly average

Yearly, monthly and daily output by system size

Planning estimates from measured kWh per kW.

Estimated kWh a year by system size — median and middle half

MedianMiddle half

System size × measured kWh per kW (median 1,456; whiskers 1,311–1,557). Source: Cali Energy monitoring.

Solar output by system size in Los Angeles (estimate)
System size	kWh a year	Typical range	kWh a month, avg	kWh a day, avg	December	July
4 kW	5,820	5,240–6,230	485	16	272	652
5 kW	7,280	6,560–7,780	607	20	340	815
6 kW	8,740	7,870–9,340	728	24	408	978
7 kW	10,190	9,180–10,900	849	28	476	1,141
8 kW	11,650	10,490–12,460	971	32	544	1,304
10 kW	14,560	13,110–15,570	1,213	40	680	1,630
12 kW	17,470	15,730–18,680	1,456	48	816	1,956
Estimate = size × measured kWh per kW. December and July use the monthly medians. Your roof’s direction, tilt and shade move results within or beyond the range.

Output by system size (CSV)

How to cite: Cali Energy, “How Much Does a 4–12 kW Solar System Produce in Los Angeles?,” updated October 7, 2026, https://cali-energy.com/research/solar-system-size-output-los-angeles. Aggregated data are free to use under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

What measured systems of each size produced

Real systems grouped by DC size, not an estimate.

Measured systems by size group
Size group (DC)	Systems	System-years	Median size, kW	Median kWh a year	kWh per kW	kWh per kW, middle half
Under 5 kW	19	94	4.2	6,330	1,466	1,300–1,537
5–7 kW	31	142	6.1	8,783	1,446	1,333–1,540
7–9 kW	16	67	7.7	11,884	1,500	1,376–1,636
9–12 kW	9	34	9.9	14,827	1,506	1,326–1,552
12 kW and up	14	48	15.8	21,781	1,424	1,299–1,493

Per-kW output in every size group sits between 1,424 and 1,506 kWh a year. A bigger system makes more electricity, but not more per panel: what matters is how the roof faces and what shades it. The largest group is slightly lower; large systems more often spread across several roof faces, some of them east or west. Groups with fewer systems carry more uncertainty, so use the estimate table above for planning.

How much energy one solar panel produces

By panel rating, at measured LA rates.

Estimated output per panel in Los Angeles
Panel	kWh a year	kWh a month, avg	kWh a day, avg	December day	July day
300 W	437	36	1.20	0.66	1.58
350 W	510	42	1.40	0.77	1.84
400 W	582	49	1.59	0.88	2.10
430 W	626	52	1.71	0.94	2.26
450 W	655	55	1.79	0.99	2.37
Panel rating (DC watts) × measured kWh per kW. Check your panel’s rating on its datasheet or your contract.

What size solar system do I need?

Work backward from your yearly electricity use.

System size to cover a given yearly usage (estimate)
Yearly use, kWh	Size at median output	Range*	400 W panels, approx.
5,000	3.4 kW	3.2–3.8 kW	9
7,500	5.2 kW	4.8–5.7 kW	13
10,000	6.9 kW	6.4–7.6 kW	17
12,500	8.6 kW	8.0–9.5 kW	21
15,000	10.3 kW	9.6–11.4 kW	26
20,000	13.7 kW	12.8–15.3 kW	34
*A sunny, unshaded roof needs the smaller size; a shaded or east/west roof the larger. Your 12-month usage is on your utility bill or account.

Covering 100% of usage is not always the goal. On SCE’s net billing tariff, exported power earns far less than it costs to buy, so systems are often sized to daytime use plus a battery; LADWP customers still have net metering. See how many solar panels you need and NEM 3.0 explained.

The table is a starting point. A design for a real house starts from 12 months of your kWh, your utility’s rules and what your roof can hold: which faces get sun, how much of each is shaded, and where fire setbacks leave room. That is how we size systems; see solar panel installation.

Methodology

Data source: Monthly AC energy recorded by SolarEdge inverters in Cali Energy’s monitoring fleet. These are readings from the monitoring system, not from utility revenue meters.
Systems: 96 monitored systems; 4 excluded (1 customer system we service but did not install, 1 expanded mid-period, 2 whose output does not match the capacity recorded in the monitoring account). 89 systems have at least one complete system-year.
Complete system-year: One system over one calendar year, 2019–2025, with production recorded in all 12 months. Years below 75% of the same system’s own median were treated as downtime and kept out of the benchmark (3 of 388). Result: 385 complete system-years. 2026 is incomplete and not used.
Unit: kWh per kW: yearly or monthly energy divided by the system’s DC nameplate rating (kW) as recorded in the monitoring account. It removes system size, so a 4 kW and a 12 kW system can be compared.
Statistics: Medians and percentiles (p10, p25, p75, p90), not averages, so a few unusual systems do not move the result. “Middle half” means p25–p75.
Geography: Assigned by ZIP code: 49 systems in the San Fernando Valley and Burbank, 21 elsewhere in Los Angeles County, 4 in the Santa Clarita Valley, 4 in Ventura County and 11 elsewhere in Southern California.
Limits: Not a random sample of Los Angeles roofs: these are systems we monitor, weighted toward the San Fernando Valley. Roof direction, tilt and shade vary from system to system and are not adjusted for. Customer names and addresses are never published; only aggregates are.
Estimates: Rows for 4–12 kW multiply system size by measured kWh per kW. They are planning figures, not measurements of systems of exactly that size; measured size groups are shown separately.

Frequently asked questions

How much does a 6 kW solar system produce per day in Los Angeles?

About 24 kWh a day on average over a year: roughly 13 kWh a day in December and 32 in July.

How many kWh does a 10 kW solar system produce per month in LA?

About 1,213 kWh a month on average: about 680 in December and 1,630 in July.

How much does a 5 kW solar system produce in a year?

About 7,280 kWh in the Los Angeles area at the measured median rate, typically 6,560–7,780.

How many solar panels do I need for 10,000 kWh a year?

About 6.9 kW, or roughly 17 panels of 400 W, at the measured median rate; 6.4–7.6 kW depending on the roof.

Does a bigger solar system produce more per kW?

No. Measured systems of every size produced 1,424–1,506 kWh per kW a year at the median. Roof direction and shade matter, not size.

More research

ResearchReal-World Solar Production in Los AngelesMedian 1,456 kWh per kW a year across 385 complete system-years.ResearchMonthly Solar Production in Los AngelesFrom 68 kWh per kW in December to 163 in July — with a check-your-system tool.ResearchHow Much Does Solar Production Drop in Winter?December delivers a median 45% of June on the same systems.ResearchWhy Did My Solar Production Drop This Year?Year-to-year change on the same systems, checked against NASA sunlight data — and a tool to compare your system with the fleet.ResearchHow Much Solar Does a Home Actually Use?Measured energy flows in six homes: 15–70% of solar used on site.ResearchWhat an Inverter Failure Costs, and What a Repair Restores14 verified replacements: output restored to a median 99% of its prior level.ResearchHow Fast Do Solar Systems Lose Output?Sunlight-corrected, a median 1.3% a year on systems with 5–9 years of data — and why it wasn't steady.ResearchResidential Solar Permits in Unincorporated LA CountyEPIC-LA permit records, 2020–2026: applications by month, battery share, approval time and final inspections.

From a table to your roof

These are planning estimates based on measured median production; a design for your house starts from your usage and your roof.

InstallationSolar sized for your roof and usageWe size from 12 months of kWh and your roof’s direction, tilt and shade, not a city average. Terms in writing.Case studyHe sized it from his bill. The answer was in his kilowatt-hours.A Woodland Hills design that changed once annual kWh, not one monthly bill, set the size.Case studySized to the bill, not the roof.A Glassell Park design that started at 26 modules and shipped at 14, because usage decided the size.Case studyNo face was big enough, so it became several arrays.A Granada Hills hip roof split across several roof planes — and what each extra plane costs.

Prepared by Cali Energy, October 7, 2026. Figures describe systems in our monitoring fleet and are not a guarantee of what any specific roof will produce; orientation, tilt, shade, equipment and weather change results. Not engineering, financial or utility advice. See our Content Disclaimer.